Joined: 22 Mar 2007 Posts: 20 Location: Monterey Bay
Posted: Wed Apr 25, 2007 9:21 pm Post subject:
In my opinion, its hard to say. Depends on the player and his style, a little more so than online. Also depends on your style. But I know your a great player, so I guess your just hearing opinions rather than really getting advice.
I'll assume he a competent player for this one (better be for a $900 buy-in). So I would think that from the small blind, he has a least an ace and a suited or connector card (i don't see him calling with 56, unless they were suited).
One scenario is he flopped a gutshot and you can tempt him into another bet. Since he can't actually have a strait yet, his check was probably genuine weakness. With a draw like that, you can probably play with him and just let the hand go if bad cards come up. I would make a raise though and make him pay for it. I'd bet 1/2 of the pot or more. If he has a gutshot, he doesn't have anything to make a bluff with, he'll probably let it go on the turn. You probably wont make a lot of money from your kings simply because the board is so straightforward, and you raised from first position (he likely knows what you have or pretty close).
You CAN make quite a bit more money if he has an overpair (except of course aces). Anyone would have a hard time letting go of Pocket tens, jacks, or queens, in this situation. I would still bet the same amount though, if he calls then it he is much more likely to have the overpair instead of the gutshot.
Also, he could have simply overcards. He would probably play these pretty similar to the gutshot, but might let them go easier if you bet into him.
Finally, he could have aces (or kings) and is trapping you. Even so, it would be almost impossible to know this and this is one of those hands were you're just going to have to lose a lot of money.
BOTTOM LINE: Checking is out of the question, you have to make him make a decision. I wouldn't try and bet him out of the pot, but with the entire pot being $130, making a pretty strong bet would give you good information about his hand, he probably wouldn't invest too much on that gutshot. If he folds, $130 is still a victory for you.
The buy-in was free. It's a weekly game full of fish. Most of them are calling stations. There are maybe three or four pretty good players in the bunch. We all start with T$900 and the pace is fast and furious, maybe getting in two orbits per level.
This is the first time I've ever played with this guy, so no reads.
I bet $30. Here's why:
1) It's early in the tournament. It's a simple enough bet to find out from a fish where you stand. If he's drawing to 2 pair (say he got a big blind special), you've still got odds on him and he'll raise. The plan is to charge him on the turn if draws are possible on the river.
2) You have position.
He looks at the hand and almost mucks, sensing he's being toyed with. Then he reluctantly calls.
Pot is at 190 now.
3) Now you pretty much know what he has. He missed the flop completely, and he'd like to stick around for another card.
Joined: 22 Mar 2007 Posts: 20 Location: Monterey Bay
Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 6:35 pm Post subject:
same thing, bet into him. If he's a fish, then you'll probably bet able to pick up if that card helped him. It's not a very good card for you. There is a good chance he limped with ace-whatever suited. So he probably lost his strait draw, but picked up top pair.
Either way, you gotta bet it. If he calls without an ace in his hand, he's a complete fish and you'll have that information early. Your last bet was pretty small, so bet about the same amount, but I would up it a little just to put some pressure on him. If he has the ace you'll probably know by the way he responds.
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