Calculating and Using Pot Odds
written by BeatTheFish.com
...Fishy says, "Pot odds? That
sounds scary for a little fish like me."
In this reference
article, I'd like to explain the concept of pot odds
including what it is, how to calculate it, and why it's important to
you as a smart poker player. While many poker authors, television
commentators, and professional players will talk about getting "the
right price on a call" or getting the right odds on a play, what
exactly are they referring to and how can you come to the same
conclusion when playing for yourself? These terms all relate to pot
odds, so I hope to help you understand this poker fundamental with
the following questions and answer article.
What are
"pot odds"?
Pot odds are simply the odds that the
pot is giving you on your play. For example, if the pot is $10 and
it costs you $2 to call, you are getting 5:1 (spoken "5 to 1") pot
odds. In this instance, it costs you $2 for the chance to win $10.
If you're playing in a live game or on a site that doesn't show the
active pot, you'll need to include all money that has been bet
instead of just the money sitting in the pot from previous betting
rounds.
How do I calculate them?
Using simple addition and division you
can at least approximate your pot odds at any given moment. While it
may seem intimidating, all you have to do is divide the pot by the
amount it costs you to call. If you're in a big hand and the pot is
$90 on the flop and your lone opponent bets $10 into you, you divide
100 (the existing $90 plus your opponent's $10) by 10 (the 10 it
costs you to call) to come up with 10. You're getting 10 to 1 pot
odds to make the call. Even if the numbers aren't as simple, try
estimating to get an approximate idea of your odds. If the pot is
$85 and you have to call a $20 bet, the exact odds are 4.25 to 1.
Instead of taking the time to figure that out, you know that it is
much closer to 4 (4x20=80) than 5 (5x20=100) so you'll give yourself
pretty close pot odds by simply figuring that call as 4:1. Again,
just divide the total pot by the amount it costs you to call.
How are pot odds useful?
Without any context, pot odds sounds
like an interesting mathematical quirk of an inherently mathematical
game. However, when you begin to compare the pot odds you're getting
with the actual odds of making your hand, they actually become very
useful. For example, on the flop you know that you are approximately
a 2:1 underdog of making your open-ended straight or completing your
four-flush by the river. If you didn't know that, you might
want to review the
Texas Hold'em Odds page first. Compare those odds to your pot
odds to see if the call is worthwhile. If you have an open-ended
straight draw and are facing a $5 bet into a $20 pot, you're getting
4:1 pot odds. This means that you need to make your hand 1 out of 5
times to make a profit. Since you'll make your straight 1 out of 3
times by the river, this is an easy call.
Another example would be hitting a set
on the flop with 3 suited cards on the board. For this scenario,
let's assume that your opponent already has a completed flush. If
your opponent bets out $30 and makes the pot $110, you should
probably call. In this situation, you're getting almost 4:1 pot odds
on your money and the odds of making a full house by the river are
about 2:1. You're essentially the one drawing at this point, but
he's given you the right odds to do so. However, if you knew your
opponent had a small flush and he bet out $140 to make the pot $220,
you should be dumping the hand. You need to call $140 for the chance
to win $220, or only about 1.5:1 pot odds.
Finally, an extremely common draw in
no-limit hold'em is playing any pocket pair preflop with the hope of
making a set on the flop. The actual odds of making your set on the
flop are about 7.5:1 - not very good at all. However, when lots of
players limp in and the pot slowly grows, the pot odds on your call
begin to make it more worthwhile. While you'll rarely be receiving
7.5:1 or better pot odds, the return on your play becomes much
better when the pot grows in relation to the small amount required
to call.
While the above examples are drawing
situations, you can also use pot odds effectively in all-in
tournament situations. When you hear about players getting "priced
in" or "having to call", they're talking about the pot odds. Let's
say that it's the final table of a major televised tournament with
the blinds at 50,000/100,000. The short stack moves all-in from the
button for 200,000. The small blind folds and the big blind looks
down to find K-J offsuit. He has to call 100,000 more for a chance
to win a current pot of 350,000 (the blinds plus the 200,000 bet).
The pot odds are 3.5:1 and this makes it an almost automatic call as
he's getting more than the right odds against an underpair or even a
single overcard. Thus, he's getting the right price on his call.
You can also compare the pot odds to the
likely odds that your opponent has you beat. If you're getting
almost even-money pot odds on an all-in call but think that there is
only a 1 in 4 chance that your opponent has you beat right now, this
can help you decide whether or not to make the call. Another "have
to call" situation in tournaments comes when a player is getting
better than 2:1 odds by calling an all-in bet holding a straight or
flush draw on the flop.
Of course, pot odds are certainly not
everything in poker. There may be times in tournaments where you're
obviously getting the right pot odds on a call but simply don't want
to risk a lot of chips on a gamble. That is often the philosophy of
successful tight tournament players like Phil Hellmuth who usually
won't risk a substantial amount of chips on any single hand unless
they're a clear favorite. You may be in a cash game in which you
cannot afford to play a lot of draws regardless of the pot odds.
The conclusion should that I'd like you
to take away from the concept of pot odds is that it's an effective
tool to calculate the odds you're getting on any given call. You
should remember that it's simple to calculate: just divide the total
pot by the amount it costs you to call. If you find that you
routinely make calls against the odds that the pot is offering you,
try to reevaluate your play and plug up this leak in your game. If
you always make calls with the proper pot odds, you should
statistically come out ahead in the long-run.
Back to
Poker Strategy
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