The Hammer of Future Bets
written by BeatTheFish.com
...Fishy says, "Avoid the hammer or
smash it down on your fishy friends!"
Perhaps an overlooked concept, the "hammer
of future bets" is important to keep in mind while a no limit
hold'em hand is playing out. I believe that David Sklansky and Ed
Miller coined the actual "hammer of future bets" term in their 2006
book No Limit Hold'em: Theory and Practice, but they're
essentially giving a name to something that good no limit players
already keep in mind. "The hammer" would be the looming expectation
in earlier betting rounds that there will possibly be large bets on
later betting rounds.
When you're the one facing the hammer,
you're usually heads-up and out of position with a mediocre hand.
You have to fear what the next round holds if you continue with the
hand. When you're the one creating the hammer, you show strength,
are usually in position, and send the message that if your opponent
continues to stay in the hand they will likely face large future
bets. While the hammer of future bets may seem obvious as hands
progress, it is important that you work backwards when you're in a
questionable situation and realize when you're facing trouble. On
the converse, you should recognize when to put this same pressure on
weaker opponents. Let's take a look at a couple of examples and
please keep in mind that I'm not trying to teach the "correct" play
in each situation, but rather how the hammer of future bets works
and what you might do in similar situations:
You're playing a full $5/10 no limit
ring game and are on the small blind. You bought in for the table
maximum of $1,000 and most of the table stacks are around that
amount. You haven't been at the table long, but it is a fairly
conservative group of players. A player from early position whom
you've seen take down a couple of small pots without showdown raises
to $40. He has you covered. Everyone folds to you and you call with
 
While your holdings are somewhat slim,
this is the right type of hand to bust a big one with and one that
you'll occasionally call with. It's also a very mediocre hand if you
only hit top pair. If you're a beginner, you should probably avoid
these situations but if you're confident in your game you can open
up your starting cards a bit. You have plenty of money behind you
and so does your opponent, meaning that $40 isn't a huge investment.
Because he's raising from early position, you expect him to have a
strong hand (perhaps a big pocket pair, AK, or AQ) and thus will be
willing to play a big pot. Everyone folds and the pot is $90. The
flop is
  
You do have top pair, but is it any
good? You're out of position against the pre-flop raiser who may
already have a larger pocket pair or a better kicker. You could make
a bet and fold if raised or concede on the turn if called, but let's
say that you check instead. Your opponent bets out $100. This is
where the hammer of future bets comes into play. While it may only
cost you $100 to call with top pair on the flop, you're facing the
threat of larger pot-sized bets on the turn. You should be looking
ahead and deciding if this is a hand that you want to play a big pot
with. If it were me, I wouldn't want to. The fear of being out of
position and against a player who has shown strength should make you
wary here. Let's say that you do call the $100 and see the turn of
The pot is already $300 and you probably
have to check again. When your opponent bets out another $300, you
should really be thinking about dumping the hand. While you might
like the hand to go to showdown, there are no guarantees that it
will. You're still facing the threat of more action on the river.
You would have to call $300 more just for the chance of winning an
extra $300. This hand faces the danger of becoming much larger than
you'd like it to be. Save the big pots for your really big hands.
While this may be an easy strategic example, one of the main reasons
you don't want to get involved out of position against a strong
opponent is the hammer of future bets.
Let's reverse the above hand and say
that you're the early position player and that you do, in fact, hold
AQ. Here, you might wish to slow down on the turn because of
the hammer of future bets. As observant players will keep this
concept in mind, you may be able to extract a larger bet on the
river from your opponent because he now knows the price of a
showdown and can't face any future bets. You're making the bet on
the river where it's more likely to be called in this situation.
Another example can occur in that same
$5/10 no limit game. This time, you've worked your stack to about
$1,200 - just above the table average. From under the gun, you pick
up
 
and raise to $30. It may be a small
raise, but you're mixing up your game and varying your bet size to
keep your opponents from getting an easy read on your hand. Both the
button and big blind call and they have both been loose and wild
players. The flop comes
  
Besides a freak two pair or a set, you
probably have the best hand at this point. The big blind checks and
you bet out $100. While either of your opponents could be
slowplaying a monster, they have been fairly aggressive so a mere
call probably wouldn't indicate strength. You've also seen the
button play a good number of flush draws so if he just calls, you
feel like he's on the diamond draw. Observant players with 2
diamonds will realize that the hammer of future bets comes into play
here. While you might be getting almost 2:1 odds on drawing, there
is no guarantee that you'll be paid off if/when you hit. You'll also
be facing future bets if your diamond doesn't materialize.
While his call would be worthwhile if he
could certainly get all your money in the pot with a completed
flush, the draw is so obvious that this is likely not the case.
Because the turn will certainly not give him a free draw if a
diamond doesn't fall, the threat of playing a big pot with two more
cards to come should discourage the call. Even if you don't have the
AK here, reading an opponent for a weak hand should encourage you to
make a good bet on the flop and/or turn to get observant opponents
to fold for fear of future bets.
Again, it is never too early in a no
limit hold'em hand to be thinking about the direction that the pot
is taking. If you have a questionable call, try to keep in mind all
possible factors including the hammer of future bets that makes your
mediocre hand look less appealing. At the same time, look for ways
to exploit your opponent's fear of future bets by letting him call
your river bet to end the action.
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Poker Strategy
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