Important Odds and Probabilities
written by BeatTheFish.com
...Fishy says, "The probability
that I will have a flake soufflé for dinner tonight is 100%."
Unfortunately,
many new poker players are intimidated by the game because they
believe they need to be math whizzes in order to be a winning
player. Beginners are often under the impression that performing
quick and complex equations at the table to determine odds and
probability separates the fish from the sharks. While you will find
some extremely mathematical (and successful) professional players
such as Chris “Jesus” Ferguson or Barry Greenstein who both have
degrees in math-related fields, the fact is that you only need to
know some basic odds and simple division to always play proper
poker.
Since Texas Hold’em is so popular these days and is also my favorite
variation, I’ll use the following applicable odds and probabilities.
While it would take volumes to detail the probabilities of hitting
with all possible starting hands, I’ll mostly deal with hands after
the flop but you should know some basics before the flop. Against
any other single hand, pocket Aces are at least an 80% favorite.
That means that you’ll win at least 80% of the time in the long run
against one other opponent when you’ve got Rockets. If you have
pocket Kings, it’s 44 to 1 against someone having pocket Aces at the
table. Any pocket pair is a slight favorite in all-in situations
against one player with two overcards, although it’s just about a
coin flip situation.
An important statistic to know about playing small pocket pairs is
that you’ll hit a set on the flop about 1 in 7.5 times. That means
that you should theoretically be getting 7.5 to 1 pot odds to play a
pair of deuces preflop, for example. That’s the key to figuring out
the right decisions in poker: compare the odds of making your hand
versus the odds the pot is giving you. Technically, you would be
getting even odds if there were 6 other callers in the pot but I’ll
often play these baby pairs with 2 or 3 callers ahead of me. Why?
Especially if I’m playing no-limit, the implied odds are huge if my
opponent makes top pair or two pair and I’ve picked up a set. Since
I might double my chip stack from a minimal investment, it is often
worth the call from late position. It’s definitely correct to call
with any pocket pair with 6 or more callers in the pot.
Perhaps most important is knowing what to do on the flop with those
straight and flush draws. Let’s say that you’re holding 6d-7h from
late position and the flop comes 8d-9h-Ks. Any 10 or 5 will give you
a straight, and this is called an open-ended straight draw. The odds
of completing your straight by the river are slightly worse than 2
to 1, so you’ll hit your straight roughly 1 in 3 times. If the pot
is $100 and an opponent bets $30, you’ll be getting over 4 to 1 pot
odds so you should definitely at least call. If you’re on a gutshot
straight draw where only one value will make you a straight, the
odds are about 5 to 1 that you’ll hit it by the river.
Regarding flush draws, the odds are slightly better but average out
to about 2 to 1 also. That is, the odds are 2 to 1 against you
hitting the fifth suited card by the river. Let’s say that you have
Jc-10c and the flop is 2c-Ac-9h. You’ll need any additional club to
complete your flush. In this situation, if the pot is $100 again but
you opponent bets $200, you’re only getting about 1.5 to 1 pot odds
– not enough to make the call. Another important fact is that you’ll
be worse than a 4 to 1 favorite to hit your straight or flush on the
river if you miss on the turn. Unless you’re getting a free card or
only have to call a small bet, it usually doesn’t make sense to draw
at this point.
While it may seem daunting at first, these figures almost become
second-nature after you’ve played enough hands. The most important
part is knowing the odds to make your hand compared to the odds that
the pot is offering you. Helping to know these odds will also help
you know how much to bet to make it unprofitable for your opponents
to call with draws. Remember, your small pocket pairs (or any pocket
pair for that matter) are 7.5 to 1 against making a set on the flop
so take a cheap shot if you can because of the great implied odds.
Just realize that you won’t hit that set very often. Other common
odds that you’ll need to know is that you’re getting 2 to 1 odds on
making your open-ended straight or four-flush draw by the river.
Compare this with the pot odds by dividing the total pot size by
what you have to call to continue with the hand. You don’t have to
be a mathematician to play with the proper odds in Hold’em – you
just have to know some basic probabilities of common situations.
Back to General Poker
Strategy
This article or portions of this article
may not be used in any form without permission.
|
