Implied Odds: What They Are and How
to Use Them
written by BeatTheFish.com
...Fishy says, "Is a goldfish feast
implied with that huge pot you're building?"
Following up on my
piece about
pot odds, I'd like to address another oft-misunderstood and
misused poker concept: implied odds. Poker players hear this
term used liberally, usually by an amateur player justifying their
loose call in a large pot. However, they can also be a useful tool,
especially in no-limit games, in situations where it's clear that
you will win a large pot if you make your hand. In this piece, I'd
like to explain the basics of implied odds, how you figure them out,
and how they can be useful to you at the poker table:
What are
"implied odds"?
Implied odds are essentially your best
estimation of what you expect to make if you hit your
hand. The most important thing to keep in mind about implied odds is
the definition itself: they are not exact odds at all. They are
merely your best guess after taking into account all factors of the
hand's history and your opponent's playing history. These "odds" are
implied because they do not actually exist mathematically. Because
you're trying to put a number on play that hasn't happened yet and
that you aren't sure is going to happen at all, your expected value
can vary significantly depending on how realistically you judge the
situation. Again, implied odds are what you figure to make from your
opponent(s) on future betting rounds. If you can learn to accurately
predict what your opponents will probably do, you can use implied
odds in conjunction with pot odds to help make decisions on drawing
hands. However, I caution against bringing this concept into play in
most situations where proper poker strategy is much more important
and practical.
How do I calculate them?
This is the biggest problem with implied
odds: you can't calculate them. Whereas pot odds are
mathematically calculated based on how much money has been bet
compared to what is already in the pot, implied odds are an
estimation of what you think you can make. Because implied odds
aren't cut and dry, they are highly subject to the individual player
and his attitude about the current hand. As I mentioned in the
overview, players can use this as a reason to make a loose call
because they feel that the implied odds are high on a draw. On the
converse, I suggest assuming that the implied odds are low in
most situations to make you want to fold.
If you're bored and feel like playing a
trash hand, it's easy to say, "Well, I can call that $50 raise with
9-7 offsuit because I can win a huge pot if I hit the flop." This
player would be figuring the implied odds are high. While that may
be true, how often will you hit that huge flop and, perhaps even
more importantly, will your opponent pay you off when you do? You
need much more information that how much the raise is to start to
try to figure the implied odds.
You shouldn't figure the likelihood of
winning a big pot based on a wild guess or optimistic thinking. When
you do that, implied odds become a self-fulfilling prophecy. If you
really want to play a hand, you look for reasons why you should. If
you convince yourself that you're getting great implied odds on your
call despite the information available to you, you're twisting the
concept into reinforcement for doing what you felt like doing. You
wouldn't notice this leak in your game because you convinced
yourself that it was a smart play.
So, if implied odds aren't a guessing
game, how do you actually figure them out? Below, I'd like to post 4
examples of using implied odds to help figure out the optimum play.
In each case, assume that you have at least an average stack in
place. I will tell you what I believe to be the best play in
general, but again, implied odds are highly un-mathematical:
Example 1: At a $1/2 NL full
table, you hold pocket fours on the button. Everyone has folded
around to the cutoff, who raises to $8. Should you make the call and
are your implied odds good on this hand?
Answer: To both questions I would
have to answer no. In this situation, I would either raise (about
20% of the time) or fold (the other 80% of the time). Simply put,
the least complicated play would to fold.
Without getting into implied odds, this is tough to play on a flop
with likely overcards, so you'd like to either throw the hand away
or try to pick up the pot right
here. If you
don't feel like the risk, throw the hand away. But, what about the
implied odds? Won't you win a huge pot if you hit your set on the
flop? In this case, there is no reason to think that you will.
Because the cutoff is in a steal situation, he probably doesn't have
a big hand that he will commit a lot of chips with on the flop. Even
if you hit your set, you need your opponent to have a strong, but
second-best, hand to make a lot of money. In this situation, implied
odds wouldn't help my decision.
Example 2: At a $1/2 NL full
table, you pick up pocket sixes from late position. This time, an
early position raiser makes it $10 and there are 2 other callers
before you act. Should you call here and do and do implied odds help
you make that decision?
Answer: In this spot, I might
take the chance with a call. Unlike the previous example, the
initial raiser has shown strength and the extra callers give you
better pot odds on the play. Both of these factors also give you
good implied odds here, which help to compensate for the
7.5:1 odds you're getting against making a set on the flop. In this hand, the best outcome for you is
that at least one of your opponents has a big pocket pair and you're
the only one to make a set on the flop. Because of the early
position raise and the 5x raise, it is likely that at least of them
has a big hand. In this case, you expect to make a lot of money if
you make your set as most players have trouble throwing away A-K
with top pair or an overpair to the board. Implied odds can definitely
help you make the call here if you can afford to take a chance.
Example 3: In that same $1/2 NL
game with the same raiser and callers as the previous problem, let's
say that you had J-10 of spades and called the bet. This is a frisky
call (and one that I wouldn't make too often), but you did have
position on the hand and let's say that you saw a flop for the sake
of the example. The flop come
8h-9s-K-c and the raiser bets out $30. The pot is now $73. Should
you call here and do and are the implied odds good?
Answer: The answer of whether or
not to call is perhaps the subject for an another article on the
odds and value of drawing. However, this is another situation where
I can take the implied odds into play. The preflop raiser is
representing a hand like A-K or pocket Aces. If you call and hit
your straight, are you likely to make more money on future betting
rounds? The answer here is yes, so your implied odds are high here.
Most intermediate players, especially online, would have a difficult
time throwing away Aces in the face of a 7 or a Q coming out on the
turn or river. If you make your straight, you're likely to take all
of someone's money.
Example 4: You're in a $2/4 NL
full ring game and have As-2c from the big blind. One player in
middle position raises to $12 and everyone else folds. The best play
would be to fold here, but let's say that you make the call. The flop comes out with 5s-7s-8s and you
make a weak check. The raiser bet
$15 into you. Do implied odds help you here?
Answer: Personally, if I had
checked on the flop, I would probably dump the hand to a bet. Even
though I have the Ace of spades, I don't think that my implied odds
are good here at all. If the raiser has a hand like red Jacks or J-Q
of clubs, will he call/bet/raise if a 9s or any other spade
materializes and completes your hand? I don't think so. With a trash
straight possible and the obvious spades on the board, unless your
opponent has a flush himself it doesn't seem like you are getting
good implied odds here. The probably with a lot of flush draws are
that they are so obvious that you can't assume on fooling your
opponents when you hit. His $15 bet is an odd one and seems weak. To
me, this is not a hand that is likely to make you money down the
road.
How are implied odds useful?
As I've tried to outline with the above
examples, implied odds are most useful when it appears that your
opponents are committed to a hand and you have a good chance at
making a big, yet hidden, hand. While it can be easy to convince
yourself that you're getting great odds, try to evaluate the way the
hand has actually played out. Instead of using guesswork or wishful
thinking, try using the information available in the hand to make
realistic decisions. With such highly subjective methods, it is only
worthwhile if you're objective about your chances to build a big
pot.
Back to
Poker Strategy
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