The only Texas Hold’em Odds You Need to Win

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You don’t need to memorize all of these Texas Hold’em odds, but having a general idea of the most important ones is essential

Contrary to what some poker strategists tend to preach you don’t need to memorize lists of odds and perform complex mathematics to be a winning Hold’em player.

However, there are some simple Texas Hold’em odds and probabilities that you should know well when you’re drawing to a hand or want to prevent your opponents from doing so.

Here’s the bottom line:

If you figure that your draw will be the best hand if you hit it just compare the odds of you hitting that hand to the odds the pot is giving you to decide if you’re making a mathematically sound play.

You will run into this situation often at the table so get into the habit of comparing the actual odds of making your hand against the pot odds you’re receiving.

The odds below are separated into pre-flop and post-flop sections and, while some are essential, some were thrown in for fun.

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A.H.

You illustrate the game in plain and simple terms without fluff.

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The odds of receiving certain hands pre-flop are out of your control, but it can help you from having unrealistic expectations

Preflop Texas Hold’em Odds

Bold text = most common playing decisions and thus most important to commit to memory.

If I recommend that you memorize a vital statistic it will be bolded and you will run into it frequently playing Texas Hold’em. In parenthesis, the probability will be expressed in percentages to the nearest tenth.

These odds won’t really affect your game strategy, but it’s interesting to see how rare certain premium cards are. It’s also important to realize that many players overvalue random suited cards or a single, which are dealt relatively frequently. However, the odds that these hands will improve are much less frequent.

Probability of being dealt:

  • Any pocket pair: 16 to 1 (5.9%)
  • Two suited cards: 3.25 to 1 (23.5%)
  • A-K (Big slick – suited or offsuit): 81.9 to 1 (0.9%)
  • Any single ace: 5.7 to 1 (15%)
  • Pocket Aces: 220 to 1 (0.5%)
  • Pocket Aces or Kings: 110 to 1 (1%)
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The Texas Hold’em odds of connecting with the flop might make you rethink some of the common hands you play

Odds of connecting with the Flop in Hold’em

This is where true strategy and comparing pot odds to the actual odds of hitting a better hand come into play. I’ve listed the most essential common situations of what you’re looking to hit on the flop. It’s a wise idea to try to commit the approximate values to memory so you can quickly make pre-flop decisions at the table.

• Hitting another kind of your pocket pair (making a set): 7.5 to 1 (11.8%)
• You will pair at least one of your unpaired hole cards: 2.1 to 1 (32.4%)
• Hitting two or more of your suit when you hold suited cards: 7.5 to 1 (11.8%)
• Hitting a flush on the flop with suited hole cards: 118 to 1 (0.8%)
• You will hit two pair on the flop with unpaired hole cards: 49 to 1 (2%)

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The Texas Hold’em odds of how likely hands are to unfold after the flop will help guide almost every action you make on the flop

Odds On the Flop in Texas Hold’em

The flop is the turning point of a Hold’em hand. This is where you’re going to make your biggest and most expensive decisions. Knowing the odds of improving your hand after the flop is one of the most important things to remember in Hold’em.

These Hold’em odds, combined with the reading of your opponent(s), will entirely shape whether you continue with a drawing hand or how you make it an incorrect play for your opponent(s) to draw out on your made hand.

Outs

This is especially where “outs” come into your line of thinking and how all of these Texas Hold’em odds are generated. For example, if you have 4 cards to a flush you have 9 outs to make your hand on the turn. There are 13 cards per suit and you have 4 of them.

There are 9 unknown cards left that could complete your flush so you have 9 outs out of 47 total unknown cards (52 cards in the deck – your 2 cards and – 3 more on the flop). This is how Texas Hold’em odds are calculated. 9/47 = 19.1, or a 19.1% chance to hit your flush on the turn.

Straight and Flush Draw Odds

Drawing to open-ended straights and flushes, or fear of your opponents doing so, is one of the most common scenarios in Hold’em. Again, compare the following odds to the pot odds you’re receiving in order to calculate if it is correct to continue your draw.

On the flop, when you have:

• Four cards to a flush, you will complete it on the turn: 4.2 to 1 (19.1%)
• An open-ended straight, you will complete it on the turn: 4.9 to 1 (17.9%)
• A set, you will complete a Full House or Four of a Kind on the turn: 5.7 to 1 (14.9%)
• Two pair, you will complete a Full House on the turn: 10.8 to 1 (8.5%)

Note that the figures above also apply on the turn to calculate odds for the river since you have the same 1 card to come.

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Odds of hitting a hand by the river from the flop

The following set of odds is the likelihood to complete these hands by the river on the flop, so with 2 cards to come.

On the flop, when you have:

• Four cards to a flush, you will complete it by the river: 1.9 to 1 (35%)
• An open-ended straight, you will complete it by the river: 2.2 to 1 (32%)
• A gutshot straight draw, you will complete it by the river: 5.1 to 1 (17%)
• Two pair, you will complete at least a Full House by the river: 5 to 1 (17.7%)
• Three of a kind, you will complete at least a Full House by the river: 2 to 1 (33.4%)
• One pair, you will complete at least three of a kind by the river: 10.9 to 1 (8.4%)
• An open-ended straight flush draw, you will complete at least a straight by the river: 0.9 to 1 (54.1%)
• An open-ended straight flush draw, you will complete it by the river: 10.9 to 1 (8.4%)

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Average winning odds for one hand versus another most often comes up in tournament play

All-in One-on-One in Texas Hold’em

This comes up most often in tournaments when only two players are involved and one of them is all-in. When all of your money goes in preflop against one opponent no further decisions need to be made and the cards will be dealt to the river to determine a winner.

Preflop matchups when played to showdown:

• Larger pocket pair vs. smaller pocket pair (AA vs. KK): Larger pair is at least an 80% favorite
• Pocket Aces vs. unpaired cards (AA vs. KQ): Pocket Aces are at least an 80% favorite
• Pocket Pair vs. overcards (QQ vs. AK): Pocket pair is at least a 52% favorite (commonly referred to as a coin flip)
• Pocket Pair vs. one overcard (JJ vs. A10): Pocket pair is at least a 66% favorite
• Overcards vs. Undercards (AK vs. Q10): Overcards are at least a 57% favorite
• One overcard (A3 vs. J10): Overcard is at least a 50% favorite
• Better kicker (AK vs. AJ): Better kicker is at least a 70% favorite

Just-for-Fun Texas Hold’em odds

These statistics probably won’t affect your game in the slightest, but it’s interesting to know what some of the extreme odds are in Hold’em.

• If you’re holding a pair, the flop will bring you four of a kind about 1 in 119 tries, or 0.84% of the time.
• The odds are 70.5 to 1 (1.4%) that no one at the table has an Ace or a King at a 10-handed table.
• The odds are 87,897 to 1 (0.01%) that you will not be dealt an Ace or a pair for 50 hands.
• You will be dealt pocket Aces four consecutive times 1 in 2,385,443,281 times. Expressed as a percentage, it will happen 0.00000004% of the time.

 

The easiest way to tighten up your Hold'em game? Know the odds you're getting to improve your hand

The easiest way to tighten up your Hold’em game? Know the odds of improving your hand against the odds the pot is giving you

More on Hold’em odds

No Texas Hold’em probability has any context without comparing it to the odds the pot is giving you.

The 2-Step Method for Avoiding Fatal Poker Pot Odds Mistakes

The most important part of Hold'em independent of playing your opponents is arguably comparing pot odds to the odds of improving your hand. Let me show you how to do that and why you need to.

In no-limit games you should often also consider the implied odds if you feel you have a strong read on a hand.

The Fatal Mistake Most Players Make with Implied Odds

The concept of implied odds is one of the most poorly understood and poorly cited ideas in poker, usually used to justify a decision you shouldn't have made. What are they and when can they actually be useful?

If you’d like to see, on average, how every Texas Hold’em hand plays out long-term against random opponents, you can check out my calculations at the following page. This tells you a hand’s overall strength in relation to every other hand.

The 13 Best Texas Hold’em Poker Hand Strength Charts

A list of every single two-card starting hand in Texas Hold'em along with its long-term winning percentage against 1-8 other players holding random cards. This essentially ranks every hand by strength.

More Hold’em odds references

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Josh H
Josh H
Owner and Editor-in-chief at Beat The Fish
A lifelong poker player who moved online in 2004, Josh founded Beat The Fish in 2005 to help online poker players make more-informed decisions on where to play and how to win once they got there. He hopes to cut through the rampant dishonesty in online gaming media with objective reviews and relevant features. Tech nostalgic. Cryptocurrency missionary. Still fondly remembers the soup avatar at Doyle's Room. You can reach Josh directly at support@beatthefish.com.
 
    • I’m sorry, but I’m not quite sure what the scenario is? You flopped an Ace-high flush, correct? That’s the highest flush possible so no one can outdraw you or have a higher flush.

      Your opponent would need a full house or better to beat you. Is that what happened?

      • Josh

        Surely you could flop 7,8,9 of hearts and with a A,2 of hearts you could still be beaten with an opponent holding 10,J of hearts (straight flush beats flush).

      • AD, that’s technically true, although there is such an infinitesimally small chance of that happening that I didn’t even consider it.

        The odds of flopping a straight flush are anywhere from about 5,000-20,000 to 1 depending on how closely gapped your cards are. The 10-J you mentioned is the most likely starting hand to hit a straight flush at about 5,000 to 1.

        It’s a fun statistic to know but, really, you’re just distracting yourself if you spend a moment considering that scenario for your opponent with an Ace-high flush. If there’s an unpaired board and you an Ace-high flush just assume you’ve got the nuts and play it hard.

        You’ll probably never encounter that scenario in your poker career, but if you do, try to just tip your cap and move on.

  • Tonight I flopped a k high flush. Ended up getting it all in to be beaten by the nut flush which was also flopped, not drawn to. I realize I played the hand correctly but for fun I’m curious what the odds are of that happening. Thanks!

    • Thanks for the comment, Adam. That’s an interesting question and not an uncommon situation to happen at a table.

      Admittedly I’m not the greatest at complex poker equations that involve a lot of math. I’m more of a concept/outs/odds/experience kind of guy.

      I can run the software simulations for specific situations, but this one is a little tricky.

      Pre-flop, the odds of 2 players at a full 9-handed both being dealt a flush that materializes on the flop are about 1 in 500-600. However, if you’re calculating once a player has a flush already there is about a 10-20% chance of another player having a flush also.

      As far as specifically calculating the odds of an Ace-high flush existing when a player has a King-high flush I wouldn’t actually know how to calculate it to that level.

      Maybe I’ll do some research and get back to you. Interesting question for sure.

    • Hi, Steven. The odds of flopping a straight would depend on your starting hand, but if they’re connected (e.g. J10 or 87) the odds are about 76-1 (1.3%).

  • This happened against me two times and both straights were made on the flop within the space of 20 hands. I thought it happening once was low odds but twice in that time I’m lost for words(kind of).

    Thanks

    • Ha, that’s pretty brutal and unlikely for sure. It’s going to happen in about 1 out of every 76 flops for connected hands, so for it to happen twice in 20 hands is rare indeed. The beauty of poker.

  • sat down at a table, was there just long enough to know it wasn’t going to be easy. Was dealt ace-jack offsuit, raised and called by the big stack, flop came ace of sp + 6-7 of diamonds, I raise and big stack shoves, I.m short chips , so I can’t fold. He turns over 4-5 of diamonds. In just the little bit that I have read, am I right that even with top pair I was ahead after the flop but behind on the odds?

    • Hi, Dana. Thanks for the comment and the hand scenario. This is actually a cool situation that’s one of my favorites to come up at the table.

      You’re exactly right. You’re winning the hand on the flop and all your opponent has is a bunch of draws. However, he has so many of them (both an open-ended straight draw and a flush draw) that he’s actually a favorite to win the hand.

      He’s about a 56% favorite to win the hand after the flop. You didn’t say if you had the Ace of diamonds, which would improve your odds slightly to make a higher flush if both the turn and river are diamonds. That would still only bring him down about 3%, though, and he would still be favored to win the hand.

      You don’t see it often, but I love that straight flush draw. This example shows that you shouldn’t back down often on the flop with a straight flush draw. You’re favored over everything short of a set or full house.

      The only red flag that might make you think twice about getting all your money in there would be a paired board. If they’ve already got a boat, you’re pretty much dead to rights short of those 2 outs to make the straight flush specifically.

      About the set, there’s no real way to know if your opponent has it. However, even if they do, you’re still greater than a 40% favorite to win with your straight flush draw.

      In the end, I wouldn’t say you really made any mistakes with the hand. You got in your money when you were ahead and he’s got to improve to beat you. It’s close to a coin flip once all the money goes in, but you got it in when you had a made hand.

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